June 17, 2024

Details in the polling crosstabs show material cracks emerging in the traditional coalition of Biden voters.

Trump romps right now in battleground states—and wins over constituencies that have been historically crucial to Democrats in elections. In this regard, brand new polling from the New York Times validates the ongoing battleground polling from my advocacy group, the League of American Workers. Both their polls and ones commissioned through North Star Opinion Research show Trump comfortable leads in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona and effectively tied in Wisconsin.

But perhaps even more revealing than the topline “horse race” numbers, the details in the polling crosstabs show material cracks emerging in the traditional coalition of Biden voters. The weakness for Biden is especially pronounced among Hispanics and young voters, two groups the Democrats formerly depended upon for support.

Hispanics: in our Georgia poll, the overall Trump lead for a head-to-head matchup vs. Biden surged to double digits for the 45th president, with Trump 49%, Biden 39%, and those undecided at 12%. Amazingly, the lead among Hispanics in Georgia was even larger with Trump by +13%. Georgia is not generally regarded as a significantly Hispanic state, but it should be, with 10% of the population there now Latino.  Because of the super strong job market in Georgia, hard-working Hispanics have flocked to the Peach State. The Hispanic population doubled there from 2000-2010, from 435,000 to 865,000. Then, over 200,000 more Hispanics have been added since, getting close to 1.1 million Latinos.

These findings were echoed by the NY Times poll, which found 60% disapproval among Hispanics in battleground states and a staggering 61% of Latinos who rated their economic circumstances as “poor.” In our survey, when we asked, “Were you better off with Trump or Biden?” the former president won Hispanics by a landslide, 58-26%. Clearly, entrepreneurial, hard-working Hispanics in Georgia long for the economic prosperity of Trump.

Young Voters: Trump has earned a commanding +17% lead among likely voters aged 18-34, 49-32%, with 18% undecided. In fact, the lowly 32% take for Biden is the lowest of any age group. Interestingly, Trump also enjoys a +17% margin among young adults in a five-way presidential race that adds Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein onto the hypothetical ballot.

So, young people decidedly reject Biden. Why? The first reason is Gaza. When asked about Biden’s actions and statements regarding the war there, 66% of young voters said they make them less likely to support Biden, the highest of any age group. The second reason is the economy. The inflationary “Bidenomics” reality benefits the owners of substantial assets, primarily older citizens. But young people, who generally do not hold substantial real estate or stock market assets, struggle to pay for the necessities of life in Biden’s inflationary economy. 

Only 30% of Georgia young voters reported that Bidenomics works well for middle class families, the lowest of any age group.

These moves are structural and could last for decades to come. For instance, in Georgia, the median Latino age is only 27 years old, a full decade younger than non-Latinos there. So, when the youthful Latino population is combined with other young voters fleeing the Democrats in droves, these trends really matter, and not just for this election. In contrast to the Marxist Democrats, the America First coalition is young, ethnically diverse, and growing.

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